Insights

Below includes the many commentaries, opinion and editorial articles by Dr. Cosgrove featured in prominent news publications. Mike won the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy in 2023 for the prior four years. This was the 40th year of the award.He has also been quoted in media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, Investor's Business Daily, Barron's, The Hill, and The Christian Science Monitor. Dr. Cosgrove publishes articles in academic journals.
Op-ed Articles
Why Are Fed Leaders and Economists So Out Of Sync? by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 09/19/2023 https://issuesinsights.com/2023/09/19/why-are-fed-leaders-and-economists-so-out-of-sync/ It was also in Real Clear Markets on 09/22/23 Fed Chief Powell's Banking Blowup by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 03/18/2023 https://issuesinsights.com/2023/03/18/fed-chief-powells-banking-blowup/ Fed's Poor Performance Is Big Reason Inflation's Out Of Control by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 09/14/22 https://issuesinsights.com/2022/09/14/feds-poor-performance-is-big-reason-inflations-out-of-control/ In Battle Against Soaring Inflation, Fed Chief Powell Is Out-to-Lunch by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 06/17/22 https://issuesinsights.com/2022/06/17/in-battle-against-soaring-inflation-fed-chief-powell-is-out-to-lunch/ Will an Inept Federal Reserve Lead Us Into A Recession by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 04/29/22 https://issuesinsights.com/2022/04/29/will-an-inept-federal-reserve-lead-us-into-a-recession/ Fed's Voodoo Monetary Policy by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 02/15/22 https://issuesinsights.com/2022/02/15/Fed's Voodoo Monetary Policy It was also in Real Clear Markets on 02/16/22 https://www.realclearmarkets.com/2022/02/16/the_federal_reserve_plans_voodoo_monetary_policy_816989.html Our Incompetent Federal Reserve by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 12/17/21 https://issuesinsights.com/2021/12/17/our-incompetent-federal-reserve/ Is The Fed Boosting Inflation By Buying U.S. Government Debt? by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 10/22/21. Also in Real Clear Markets on 10/25/21 https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ What’s Behind Runaway Inflation? by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 09/17/21 Is The Federal Reserve Out-Of-Control by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 06/21/ 21 The Powell Helicopter Money Timeline by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 03/16/21 A Modest Proposal for Narrowing U.S. Income Inequality by Mike Cosgrove Issues and Insights, 09/09/20 Joe Biden's Plan to Punish Equity Investors by Mike Cosgrove The Hill, 07/14/20 What Equity Investors Knew by Mike Cosgrove Issues & Insights, 06/11/20 The Economic Shutdown Was Not Necessary by Mike Cosgrove Issues & Insights, 05/20/20 The Fed has been a weight on the back of the U.S. economy By MICHAEL COSGROVEThe Hill, 06/11/19
Is The Federal Reserve Aiming for a Recession By MICHAEL COSGROVEINTERNATIONALBUSINESS TIMES, 2/21/19 The Federal Reserve Has Lost Its Way By MICHAEL COSGROVEINTERNATIONALBUSINESS TIMES, 1/10/19 The Fed seems determined to snuff out economic progress By MICHAEL COSGROVEThe Hill, 10/19/18 US Federal Reserve's Current Monetary Policy is a Major Mistake By MICHAEL COSGROVEINTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TIMES, 8/28/18
Our Unfair Tax Code: 40% Bear The Burden By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, October 6, 2016
Why Shareholders Can Thank Obama's Slow-Growth Policies By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, February 12, 2015
Note To The Fed: Bump Up Interest Rates,Then Take a Break By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, August 29, 2014
Why is Fed Considering Paying Banks Not To Lend to Main Street By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, July 19, 2014
Gov't Transfer Payments are Also Behind the Slow Growth By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, August 15, 2013
Behind The Slow Growth: ObamaCare, Debt, Fed ... By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, May 16, 2013
Obama's Spending Surge Lit U.S. Debt Bomb's Fuse By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, October 16, 2012 The Cost of Higher Rates Paid by Fewer Taxpayers By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, August 29, 2012
Fed Turns Out To Be Enabler Of Debt Binge By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, July 13, 2012
The Economy Doesn't Need Any More Action From The Fed By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, June 13, 2012 Obama's Place in History: Debt-Monger By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, May 17, 2012
After Election, Fed Must Take Foot Off Pedal By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, February 2, 2012
Obama Can Still Get Economy on Growth Path By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, August 10, 2011
Is Jobless Rate Just Bad Luck For President? By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, May 31, 2011
U.S. Shouldn't Repeat Japan's Pre-Tsunami Economic Errors By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, March 18, 2011
Debt, Tax Burdens Holding Back Growth By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, February 3, 2011
Five Fiscal Policies to Reclaim Economy By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, October 22, 2010
Freeze Outlays To Make Gov't Less Dominant By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, September 22, 2010
Restoring Once-Vibrant Economy Hinges on Repeal of ObamaCare By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, August 31, 2010
An Atrocious Policy Mix for a Global Economy By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, July 2, 2010
Madoff-Like Political Shenanigans Put U.S. Taxpayers in Harm's Way By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, June 11, 2010
Chinese Can't Dump Our Debt Too Soon By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, March 4, 2010
How the Fed Should be Reorganized By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, December 4, 2009
Top 2009 Forecasters--Ranked 4thPage A6The Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2010
President's Economic Team Knows Better By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, November 11, 2009
Markets Need Liquidity Shot that will Last By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, September 24, 2008
Clashes, Dissent Over Key Policies Reveal Fed's Growing Fault Lines By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY,Wednesday, June 11, 2008; A11 Bernanke Has Been Anything But Loose By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, Thursday, April 3, 2008; A13 'De-Dollarization' Has Run Its course By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, Wednesday, December 12, 2007; A3 Several Guages Point to Agressive Easing By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, Friday, October 26, 2007; A12
Politics Point to Higher Tax on Dividends By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, Tuesday, June 19, 2007; A13
No Rush to Fix Social Security; They'd Blow It By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, Wednesday, February 7, 2007; A13
Targeting Prices, Fed May Hit Economy By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, Wednesday, July 26, 2006; A12 So Long to FOMC Transparency And Hello To Market Uncertainty By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, Friday, May 12, 2006; A12
Fed Chases Its Tail in Buy-Now Economy By MICHAEL COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY, Wednesday, September 21, 2005 A13 Basket Case By MICHAEL COSGROVEAs it appeared on the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal August 18, 2005, Page A14 On Monetary Policy: Yap at Japan, Not China By MICHAEL COSGROVEThe Wall Street Journal May 23, 2005, Page A14 Greenspan's Social Security "Fix" Turned Out to Be Anything But By MIKE COSGROVEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY January 18, 2005 The Fed's Complacency By MICHAEL COSGROVEAs it appeared on the editorial page of The Wall Street JournalMay 21, 2003 Op-Ed Articles

Press Coverage

Macroeconomic Researcher Wins Blue Chip Forecasting Award Michael Cosgrove to share 2024 predictions and accept the Lawrence R. Klein Award at March 6 event TEMPE, Ariz. (Jan. 17, 2024) — As economic analysts continue to debate the prospects for a soft landing versus a hard fall for the U.S. economy, Michael Cosgrove, principal and founder of The Econoclast®, Inc., predicts a mild recession with more disinflation and at least 100 basis points decline in the funds rate. Cosgrove will deliver his 2024 economic outlook, including predictions for growth and monetary policy, at a live event on Wednesday, March 6 at the University Club of New York. At the event, Cosgrove will be honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy for 2023, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting. A livestream of the forecast and award ceremony will also be available, and is free for the public to view. Register here for the virtual portion of the Lawrence R. Klein Award on Wednesday, March 6, from 7 to 8 p.m. Eastern. The award is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, in partnership with the W. P. Carey Foundation. The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics, Inc. “I have participated in Blue Chip Economic Indicators for several decades and it is an honor to receive this prestigious award,” says Cosgrove. “Economic forecasting is a humbling experience, and I am grateful to win this award and for the ability to produce useful work for clients.” Ohad Kadan, dean of the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, will present Cosgrove his award, which will be followed by his economic forecast for the year. “The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPI, and unemployment over the past four years,” says Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman, director of the Office of the University Economist at ASU. “The past four years have included a plethora of hard-to-predict economic events, and Michael Cosgrove’s predictions remained especially salient. I congratulate Michael and his team at the Econoclast.” Cosgrove has been a long-term participant in Blue Chip Economic Indicators, The Wall Street Journal survey, Western Blue Chip Economic Indicators, and Pulsenomics, and had best home price forecast at Pulsenomics in 2014. Cosgrove is a professor emeritus at University of Dallas, where he taught economics and published in academic journals focused on economics research. Prior to that he worked at Gulf Oil. Cosgrove received his PhD in agricultural economics from the Ohio State University, his MS from University of Arizona, and bachelor’s degree from South Dakota State University. During the ceremony, Cosgrove will share his latest thoughts on the U.S. economic outlook, including: • Current challenges in macroeconomic forecasting; • Prospects for growth through the remainder of 2024 and early 2025; • The status of inflation and the implications for monetary policy; and • Financial and housing market performance and risks Media note: Please consider adding this to your community calendar. Journalists who attend as members of the virtual audience can ask questions during the Q&A section of the event. About the W. P. Carey School of Business The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University is one of the top-ranked business schools in the United States. The school is internationally regarded for its research productivity and its distinguished faculty members, including a Nobel Prize winner. Students come from more than 100 countries and W. P. Carey is represented by alumni in over 160 countries. Visit wpcarey.asu.edu. About The Econoclast® The Econoclast, a Dallas based company, provides comprehensive analysis and research reports for institutional investors and corporations within a business cycle framework. The Econoclast, Inc., founded in 1979 by Michael Cosgrove, focuses on how trends in the economy, tax rates, dividends, oil prices, money and inflation influence capital markets. About Haver Analytics Haver Analytics is a global leader in time-series data and analytical software offering flexible delivery tools that meet the highest standards of economists, analysts and data scientists. It is a premier provider of time series data for the global strategy, research and quant communities, offering primary-sourced databases, a wealth of key survey and forecast data from our industry partners, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications. For more information, contact sales@haver.com. For more information/media contact: Shay Moser, W. P. Carey School of Business shay.moser@asu.edu Mike Cosgrove, The Econoclast mikecosgrove@econoclast.com The Christian Science Monitor (October 14, 2008) cited Michael Cosgrove, with a a call for the Fed to add "permanent liquidity into the system" through its control of monetary policy. "The 3 percent growth in bank reserves in the past year is pretty puny." "it is going to take quite a long time to build up trust" in the financial system.
Barron's (December 2, 2006) cited Michael Cosgrove, Econoclast®, in the column Up and Down Wall Street as stating "The U.S. efforts in Iraq might have been a turning point for the Middle East and another positive for the global economy."
Barron's (December 12, 2005) cited Michael Cosgrove, "The markets have been told -- again by Greenspan -- that the Fed is going to invert the curve," says Michael Cosgrove, proprietor of the Econoclast®, a monthly analysis of the economy and financial markets.
Barron's (September 13, 2004) cited Michael Cosgrove, Econoclast® on fiscal stimulus being used to fight the "Terrorist Tax."
Barron's (July 12, 2004) cited Michael Cosgrove, Econoclast® on Wal-Mart, productivity gains and labor costs.
Bloomberg Wealth Manager (May 2004) cited Michael Cosgrove, Econoclast® on the bond market and irrational exuberance.
Bloomberg Personal Finance (November 2002) cited Michael Cosgrove, Econoclast® on monetary policy and the risk of deflation.
Business Week Article (October 21, 2002) cited Michael Cosgrove, Econoclast® on the macroeconomic impacts of oil prices.
Barron's (May 13, 2002) cited Michael Cosgrove, Econoclast® on the limited attractiveness of European and Japanese fixed income markets.
Barron's (February 11, 2002) cited Michael Cosgrove, Econoclast® about economic conditions outside the U.S. not being as good as in the U.S. leading to a strengthening of the dollar.
Barron's (December 11, 2000, p. 43) had a half page review from the December 2000 Econoclast® research report highlighting the impact of what an erratic Federal Reserve monetary policy did to NASDAQ performance in 1999 and 2000. Barron's included a graph from The Econoclast® report in their article.
Wall Street Journal (July 1, 1996) article by Fred R. Bleakley, in which The Econoclast® is described as having the best interest-rate forecast of the sixty-four economists that participated in The Wall Street Journal's survey for the first six months of 1996.

Economic Research Studies

Commentaries

Monetary Policy (March 14, 2024)

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